Axioms, regarding VR:
1. VR/AR eclipses all computing as default interface - it takes whole human field of view.
2. VR/AR is the last computer interface - no other can display more information.
3. Default UI is in 3D
4. AR has to have eye tracking, VR can use external pointing devices.
5. VR is better while sitting, AR - while moving, outside.
6. Hand waving in front of AR/VR device will be used only for gaming, other activities will use other pointing methods, hand waving is just too energy intensive.
7. IoT is auxiliary, and will be used to present interface(WebGL) to user using local radio - local web
8. VR/AR kills any other screen - they won’t be needed anymore.
9. VR will be first
Point #4 is interesting, because, I think, VR will win as a productivity device. While working people already are sitting in front of the screen, so it is easy to switch screen for VR headset. They are using mouse and keyboard. I think keyboard will stay, but mouse only allows movement in 2 dimensions, so new pointing device has to be invented. As a bonus VR offers work free from visual distractions.
That is why I do not understand Hololens and its authors vision about work in the office. They show it as:
- a additional device to PC screen
- work is visible in 3D on your desk
- hand is a controller
Much more can be done if:
- everything is in 3D
- all field of view is workspace
- hand gestures are energy inefficient
Clarke’s third law: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
I propose different: “magic of new technology can fool even its own creators”
So, how story of VR will unfold?
1. Everything starts with gaming - it is the most natural use case for VR. Oculus will have its own version of Steam, it works, Google Chrome is another example that PC are quite open to other platforms. Steam will make classic mistake, instead of creating another client dedicated for VR, they’ll use classic Steam with filters for VR content, and by that newcomers will be confused.
2. 3D, or panoramic movies. Currently, 3D or panorama is possible, not both together, I may be mistaken here, because, if one lens covers field of view of its neighbours it may be possible to create 3D panorama. Anyway, panorama makes no sense for movie, who will be looking around if action takes place in front of viewer, there are exceptions of course, like landing on the beach in Normandy in June of 1944. Distribution is being done by Oculus client, or maybe new one. One thing is certain, this application will be future competitor for youtube. Because it has the same problem as Steam: non VR stuff. Maybe some startup will go with that, but it is quite obvious.
3. VR is widespread now, it is time for applications. They’ll start with CAD, 3D modelling stuff, because it is natural environment for this kind of programs. For office in 3D we will have to wait a little longer.
If Facebook tries new app model here, where application doesn’t need to be installed to be run, and search engine for these application is available. And history will again repeat: from AOL to www. Either Facebook will open this kind of apps, or be forced to open, so everybody can serve them. We will have new web.
4. AR comes as a mobile device. Moore’s law continues, and headsets are not that big as now. IoTs present its own interfaces, maybe using local network. At that point Apple will enter the game.
5. Not Reality. When it will be possible to rerender everything you can see. Summer in winter, winter in summer.